MARKET AND BUSINESS OUTLOOK IN 2022 The outbreak of COVID-19 is continuing its spread across the world, which simultaneously impacts the global economy. However, this pandemic continues in the downward trend during half year 2021 as high progress in vaccination against COVID-19. These resulted to lockdown restriction of COVID-19 ease across the world, and stimulus packages to respond to the economic distress. The Company anticipates that the global economy continues to recover as the demand for products. The Company anticipates that the average price of Dubai crude oil will be within the range of 79-84 USD per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had estimated the crude oil demand (as of December 2021) in 2022 at 99.7 million barrels per day, increased by 3.3 million barrels per day from the last year demand. Even there is an uncertainty amid COVID-19 pandemic, global energy shortage, and Geopolitics tensions. For Petroleum products, the Company anticipates that products price and products spread will be recovered from unlocking the lockdown with the ease in traveling resulted in increased in Petroleum demand and decreased in export quota from China. As a result, Diesel over Dubai crude oil spread is expected to be 13-14 USD per barrel while Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO) over Dubai crude oil spread to be 13-14 USD per barrel. The HSFO over Dubai crude oil spread is expected to be -6 to -5 USD per barrel. The expected Gasoline over Dubai crude oil spread is 12-13 USD per barrel, supported by the increase in transportation. The company will continue to focus on the production and our contracts with suppliers and partners to ensure that the Company will be able to handle current and future crises and uncertainties. Moreover, the company also closely monitor on the market situations to manage, procure, and distribute both raw materials and products spread appropriately. The Company expects that the Refinery utilization rate of 2022 will be operated at around 87% as there will be the planned maintenance shutdown of refinery on Q4/2022. For Petrochemical products, Aromatics products are expected to continue under pressure from new supply continues to enter the market. Paraxylene over Naphtha spread is expected to be 230-240 USD per ton. However, the expected demand from downstream business such as Fiber and Filaments industries, Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA), and PET Bottle Resin are expected to gradually recover following the recovery in global economy through the next year. Benzene over Naphtha spread is expected to be 215-225 USD per ton, supported by the new capacity of downstream products such as Styrene Monomer (SM), and Phenol. The Company expects that the Aromatics utilization rate of 2022 will be 99%. The outlook for Olefins and Derivatives product is expected to remain steady from this year, due to the recovery in demand during economic recovery. While Olefins and Polymer supply continue to increase by new productions and the recovery in refinery Business. The average HDPE price is expected to be 1,230-1,240 USD per ton and the HDPE Naphtha spread to be 500-510 USD per ton. For MEG market, MEG price is expected to maintain stable even MEG supply increases due to new capacity. However, MEG will be supported by higher raw material prices and downstream demand especially textile industry, and packaging industry which are expected to recovery. The Company expects that the average MEG (ASP) will be 650-660 USD per ton. The Company expects Olefins plants utilization rate to be around 91% due to the planned maintenance shutdown of Olefins plant 3 for 39 days and planned maintenance for the preparation for the commercial operation of Olefins plant 2/2 modification project in Q4/2022. The Company expects that Polymers plants utilization rate will be around 103%. 111 BUSINESS OPERATION AND PERFORMANCE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FINANCIAL REPORTS AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS APPENDIX
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