negotiating Iran’s nuclear deal. As a result, crude oil production has a chance to recover. However, oil demand is expected to improve due to the country’s opening up. Crude oil demand will return to normal in the third quarter of 2022 at 100 million barrels per day. Therefore, the average Dubai crude oil price in 2022 is expected to increase from 2021. The prices and spreads of petroleum products 2022 are expected to improve compared to 2021 as a result of economic recovery, the easing of lockdown measures by adopting the Live with COVID-19 policy, and rallying travel demand, especially air travel, compared to the previous year which can still grow further. China is expected to reduce petroleum product exports after announcing the Dual Control Energy Policy policy. However, a force from the large refineries postpones the re-opening from 2021 to 2022 with a combined production capacity of approximately 1.9 million barrels per day, causing the supply of petroleum products to increase. However, due to the increase in overall demand, it is expected that the oil refinery production in 2022 will increase compared to 2021. MARKET OVERVIEW - AROMATICS PARAXYLENE The COVID-19 pandemic and Omicron mutation adversely affected the paraxylene market in 2021 and dampened demand for paraxylene products, especially downstream products in the textile industry, which accounted for the largest portion. However, the market was positively influenced by rising demand for PET resin. This could be attributed to consumers’ growing concern over hygiene, which prompted them to opt for single-use food and water packaging more and reuse used packaging less. As for supply, the world’s paraxylene capacity in 2021 was 67.1 million tons, a 2.0 million ton increase from 2020. This could be attributed primarily to China’s policy to rely on domestic production and reduce imports, coupled with pressure from increased inventory and Dual Control Energy Policy, causing the upstream and downstream producers to reduce their capacity; the downstream producers in polyester chain reduced their capacity more than the upstream producers, resulting the pressure on paraxylene market. However, the additional supply of 2 million tons in 2021 was considered less than that of 8.5 million tons in 2020. As a result of these factors, the paraxylene over naphtha spread in 2021 stood at US$ 210 per ton, a US$ 11 per ton increase compared to 2020. BENZENE On the demand side, the benzene market situation in 2021 was supported by increasing demand for Polystyrene (PS) products. Due to the pandemic situation of the COVID-19 and concerns about the mutation of the new COVID-19 variant -Omicron, causing consumer behavior to change, people pay more attention to hygiene, which resulted in the demand for Polystyrene (PS) and Styrene Monomer (SM) products in food packaging. The demand to use Phenol/Acetone as a cleaning solution (hand sanitizer) was in a good direction. In addition, many countries had measures to stimulate the economy. This increased the demand for industrial benzene products due to the work from home/ stay at home behavior, reducing the use of public transportation, and turning to personal car travel instead. The demand for these products, such as household electrical appliances such as refrigerators, computer parts, mobile phones, the construction industry, and the automobile industry, was improved. Together with the Polar Vortex phenomenon in Q1/21, many benzene manufacturers in the US. stopped their production, and the global benzene market was in a tight position. As a result, the benzene and naphtha spread in Q2/21 increased to US$ 360 per ton. However, after the US. manufacturers resumed their normal operation, the spread of benzene and naphtha was reduced; coupled with the Dual Control Energy Policy in China, both upstream and downstream producers reduced their production capacity. Still, the downstream of styrene chain reduced their production more than upstream, thus causing ongoing pressure on the benzene market from Q3/21 to Q4/2021. In terms of supply, the global benzene production capacity in 2021 was 72.6 million tons, which rose by 2.7 million tons from 2020 which was considered to be lower than the capacity expansion in 2020 at 3.1 million tons. The increase in capacity came mainly from China due to its reliance on domestic production and reducing imports from abroad. However, the benzene market still had supportive factors from the low inventory volume during the third quarter and the higher benzene spread in Asia and the US. (Arbitrage window opened) in Q4. As a result of these factors, the benzene over naphtha spread in 2021 stood at US$ 268 per ton, a US$ 162 per ton increase compared to 2020. 61 BUSINESS OPERATION AND PERFORMANCE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FINANCIAL REPORTS AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS APPENDIX
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy ODg4NTI=