Dual Control Energy Policy in China, which may result in the limited production capacity in China. But on the supply side, there is a force from new ethylene capacity in Asia in 2022, which will increase by 12.3 million tons per year with 7.2 million tons per year from China, 2.8 million tons per year from the United States, 1.5. million tons per year from South Korea and 0.7 million tons per year from other countries, so the overall price of 2022 tends to decrease compared to 2021. The demand for propylene in 2022 is expected to improve as the economy recovers. In addition, it is expected that the raw material prices of the on-purpose plant, including coal, methanol, and propane gas, will remain high throughout the winter from late 2021 to early 2022, causing limited supply due to ineffective production cost. However, there is still pressure from the new propylene production capacity in Asia in 2022, which will approximately increase to 9.5 million tons per year where 7.3 million tons per year are mostly from China. Propylene in 2022 is likely to be stable compared to 2021. The overall olefin price situation is expected to be positively influenced by greater demand in response to the global economy as well as the easing of COVID-19 measures despite a steady increase in capacity. Therefore, overall olefin prices are projected to remain stabilized relative to 2021. MARKET OVERVIEW – ETYLENE OXIDE (EO) In 2021, the demand for ethylene glycol products (MEG) was severely impacted by the continuous expansion of production units, especially from China and the US. However, demand for some downstream consumer products continued to grow well. In particular, PET and Polyester products had increased demand due to the recovering economy. The MEG market also received additional supports such as the Polar Vortex phenomenon in the US. that caused local units to halt production at some point abruptly. The imposition of European antidumping duties on major producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the US. resulted in changes in trade routes and the rising prices of crude oil and raw materials of chemical products such as naphtha and coal due to energy control policies in China, caused some production units to reduce their production capacity temporarily. From the above factors, the average price of MEG products at the China Reference Market (ASP) in 2021 was US$ 675 per ton, an increase of US$ 208 per ton from 2020. In 2021, the ethanol amine (EA) market demand gradually recovered from last year. This was driven by economic recovery from the loosening of pandemic control measures. However, many manufacturing units halted production outside of planning, such as the US. from Polar Vortex or China that had to temporarily halt production from the Dual Control Energy Policy, therefore the market received additional supports from fundamental factors. The average price of EA products at the Chinese reference market in 2021 was US$ 1,167 per ton, increased by US$ 283 per ton. The spot market price of EA China in 2021 was US$ 1,167 per ton, increasing US$ 283 per ton from 2020. FORECAST FOR THE EO MARKET IN 2022 The MEG market in 2022 is expected to see steady recovery as a result of more efficient COVID-19 pandemic measures. The economy is expected to rebound better, especially in China, the main market of MEG. However, there is still a new production unit planned to start next year continuously, including the postponement of plant operations from this year. This will remain the main pressuring factors on business and product prices. The EA market in 2022 is projected the steady demand recovery, while the supply will gradually returns to normal, resulting in the quite balance of demand and supply in the market. MARKET OVERVIEW – PHENOL In 2021, phenol business profit margins remained close to 2020 due to tight supply for most of the year from the Polar Vortex phenomenon in the US during Q1, resulting in operational problems, ongoing emergency factory shutdowns, while the supply in the second quarter decreased due to the second outbreak of Delta COVID-19 variant caused the production to stop. Moreover, since Q3, manufacturers had encountered problems in shipping and the Dual Control Energy Policy in China, which resulted in some manufacturers having to stop production or reduce production. As a result of the above factors, the price of phenol products in 2021 increased to an average of US$ 1,178 per ton or an increase of US$ 429 per ton or 57%, with a difference between Product and raw material prices averaging US$ 448 per ton, or an increase of US$ 1 per ton compared to 2020. 63 BUSINESS OPERATION AND PERFORMANCE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FINANCIAL REPORTS AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS APPENDIX
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