Market and Business Outlook in 2024 Global economic growth in 2024 remains challenging, even though there have been efforts to recover from the COVID-19 crisis, conflicts in Ukraine, and energy crises. The global growth outlook continues to be weak both in the overall sentiment and on a country-bycountry basis. This is attributable to the impact of interest rates hike that have persisted to the highest level in the past decade in key global economies, as well as economic challenges. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions remain a significant risk factor, including the ongoing conflicts in Russia and Ukraine, and the IsraelHamas war. It is expected that global growth will slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF, October 2023). Nevertheless, the economic situation is expected to gradually improve in the latter half of the year after international economic stimulus measures, leading to a slowly improving overall economic outlook. Upstream Business Unit The Company anticipates that the trend of Dubai crude oil prices in 2024 will average between 75-85 USD/ barrel. However, there are several factors contributing to the challenge in crude oil market. These factors include ongoing inflationary pressures, persistently high-interest rates from previous years, and uncertainties related to the economic recovery in China, which can dampen oil demand. In terms of supply, OPEC and its allies (OPEC plus), expect a continuous control over production levels to maintain market stability. On the other hand, the supply shortage can be supported by increased production from non-OPEC countries, such as the United States, Brazil, or Iran. For petroleum products, the Company anticipates that the price and products spread in 2024 will be softened compared to 2023. This is due to economic pressure factors, high-interest rate policy effects, and uncertainties in the global economy. Additionally, changes in consumer behavior and market uncertainties contribute to the expected weakening of demand. As a result, Diesel over Dubai spread is expected to be 15-19 USD/ barrel, while Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO) over Dubai spread will be in the range of 9-12 USD/barrel. The expected Gasoline over Dubai spread is around 14-18 USD/barrel. The Company continues to manage its production and sales strategies to align with the evolving market conditions. This includes optimizing by closely monitoring the market situation for crude oil supply and product spread. The Company expects that the Refinery’s utilization rate to be at 101% in 2024. In 2023, the Olefins 2 Modification Project started commercial operation in July 2023 allowing the Company to increase propane usage as feedstock and align with the Company’s strategy to enhance feedstock flexibility and long-term competitiveness. The project has increased the Company’s ethylene and propylene capacity from 3,680,000 tons per year to 3,729,000 tons per year. Estimated Annual CAPEX of PTTGC Group for the next 5 years Projects Progress CAPEX of PTTGC group* Total 2024-2028 Estimated Annual CAPEX (M.USD) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 1) PTTGC group excluding allnex 192 151 37 3 1 - 2) allnex expansion & growth Capex 474 111 114 95 91 63 total 666 262 151 98 92 63 Notes: * 1. Group annual maintenance ~ 400 M.USD (including allnex Holding GmbH) 2. Other projects such as IT & digital, new office facility, operational excellence etc. 3. allnex expansion & growth Capex based on capex plan, including committed and uncommitted projects 4. FX assumption for USD/EURO is 1.01 for allnex CAPEX plan. 124
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