capacity in 2023 stood at 70%, a 4% decrease compared to 2022, putting the average AN price in 2023 at US$ 1,266 per ton, down from 2022. The methyl methacrylate (MMA) market remained sluggish and saw a global demand of approximately 3.6 million tons, representing a 0.9% decline, as the economic outlook dampened the recovery of MMA demand in downstream industries, such as automotive, electronics, and construction. On the supply side, the MMA supply stood at 6.1 million tons, which indicated an oversupply as with AN. Due to the excess supply, the average MMA production capacity rate was at 58%, a 5% decrease from 2022, while the average price in 2023 stood at US$ 1,542 per ton, declining from 2022. Market Forecast for 2024 As for the PTA market in 2024, the demand is projected to rebound gradually from less than 3% in 2023 to 4-5% in 2024, driven by economic activities around the world, especially when trade and tourism, among other areas, bounced back to the usual level, particularly in the second half of the year. The addition of new production capacity for PTA is projected to slow down from over 10 million tons per year in 2023 to 7-8 million tons per year in 2024. As such, the price and spread are predicted to surge beyond US$ 100 per ton once again. The PO market in 2024 will likely be supported by an increase in demand of 0.26 million tons per year and the overall economic outlook, which is anticipated to gradually improve in the second half of the year. The oversupply will also slowly subsides as the capacity expansion rate drops compared to 2023, with 1.9 million tons per year from China, 0.2 million tons per year from the U.S., and 0.2 million tons per year from other countries. Thanks to the decrease in new capacities, the overall market will likely be elevated relative to 2023. As for the AN market in 2024, the demand will be at a similar level as in 2023 due to concerns over the economy and inflation. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely impact the recovery of downstream products, such as ABS, AF, and NBL, all of which have AN as a feedstock. On the supply side, the oversupply may persist. However, if no new capacities are added in 2024, producers will be prompted to increase output compared from 2023. As the oversupply is beginning to abate, AN prices are expected to trend upward. For the MMA market in 2024, the demand will increase only 0.2 million tons from 2023 to 3.8 million tons. As MMA products in downstream industries, such as PMMA, T-plastic, cast sheet production, paint and emulsion, will not yet see a rebound, manufacturers will be required to maintain a production rate of approximately 56%, a slight dip from 58% in 2023. The market will also be pressured by continued oversupply due to an increase in production capacity from several players in China, which will amount to 0.4 million tons per year combined. As production will likely be maintained at a suitable level to preserve profitability, the MMA price is expected to trend upward. Market Overview - Polymers & Chemicals Polymers Market Overview in 2023 The overall polymer market experienced a reduced impact from the COVID-19 pandemic as the World Health Organization declared it was no longer a global public health emergency and many countries lifted travel restrictions and fully reopened, all of which contributed to polymer demand. In addition, polymer prices were bolstered by a continuous rise in feedstock prices as major oil-producing countries, namely Saudi Arabia and Russia, announce a reduction in crude oil production. However, the market still faced pressure from high inflation rates and an economic recession as well as an oversupply resulting from increased production capacity, especially in Asia. As a result of these economic factors, the overall polyethylene (PE) market in 2023 weakened slightly from 2022. The global demand saw an increase of 1.7 million tons, or only 1.4% relative to 2022, to 116.6 million tons, with the U.S. demand being the most affected by the economic recession, sliding around 0.4 million tons. The PE production capacity rose 7 million tons to 147.4 million tons, a 4.9% uptick 72
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